News & Outputs

19 July, 2010

Presentations in UPTAP sessions at the ESRC Research Methods Festival at St Catherine’s College Oxford, on 6 July 2010

The following presentations were given in Session 10 on Research Methods for Understanding Ethnic Population Trends and Processes:

Measuring ethnic group population change for small areas using census microdata and demographic population estimates - Nissa Finney, University of Manchester

Using the 2001 Census to measure the migration of ethnic groups in relation to concentration - John Stillwell, University of Leeds

Examining geographical effects on the formation and migration of mixed-ethnic unions using longitudinal data - Zhiqiang Feng, Paul Boyle, Maarten van Ham and Gillian Raab, University of St Andrews

Using the Health Survey for England to examine ethnic differences in obesity, diet and physical activity - Vanessa Higgins and Angela Dale, University of Manchester

Alternative ways of measuring neighbourhood ethnic density, including objective and perceived measures and their relationship to health - Mai Stafford and Laia Becares, University College London and James Nazroo, University of Manchester

Investigating neighbourhood disorder and ethnic heterogeneity using the British Crime Survey - Liz Twigg and Joanna Taylor, University of Portsmouth and John Mohan, University of Southampton

Methodological and analytical issues in using the British Crime Survey to model the impact of respondent ethnicity - Paula Kautt, University College London

The following presentations were given in Session 20 on Research Methods for Population Projection, organised in conjunction with the Centre for Population Change (CPC)

Estimating fertility by ethnic group and other subpopulations - Sylvie Dubuc, University of Oxford

The future ethnic mix of UK local populations, 2007 to 2057- Phil Rees, Pia Wohland, Paul Norman and Peter Boden, University of Leeds

Alternative futures for the UK’s local ethnic populations: sensitivity and scenario analyses - Pia Wohland, Phil Rees, Paul Norman and Peter Boden, University of Leeds

Bayesian forecasting and issues of uncertainty - Jakub Bijak, University of Southampton

Dynamic multistate population models - Peter Smith

Modelling the age patterns of demographic events - Guy Abel

29 April, 2009

Presentations at the UPTAP Workshop, 23rd-25th March 2009, University of Leeds

The following presentations were given at the Understanding Population Trends and Processes workshop held at the University of Leeds between the 23rd and 25th March 2009.

Monday 23rd March 2009

Motherhood and child outcomes - Kirstine Hansen, Heather Joshi and Denise Hawkes

Decomposition of changes in disability-free life expectancy by cause - Domenica Rasulo

Social and political trust: a longitudinal and comparative perspective - Nick Allum and Patrick Sturgis

Exploring geographies of happiness and well-being - Dimitris Ballas

Tuesday 24th March

Understanding the importance of work histories in determining old age poverty - Malcolm Nicholls and Karen Glaser

Using administritive data to estimate population and measure deprivation - Gillian Harper and Richard Verrall

Demographic indicators of cultural consumption (Stage II) - Orian Brook, Paul Boyle and Robin Flowerdew

Developing capacity for exploratory analysis in local government - Robert Radburn and Jason Dykes

Patterns, predictors and implications of multi-morbidity - Sarah Salway and Joanne Coy

Population, language, ethnicity and socio-economic aspects of education - Michelle von Ahn and Ruth Lupton

Estimating segregation and diversity of ethnic groups over time - Albert Sabater

Internal migration of Britain’s ethnic groups - John Stillwell and Serena Hussain

Exploring the movement of people from different ethnic groups - Antonia Simon

Black Africans in Britain: integration or segregation? - Lavinia Mitton and Peter Aspinall

Understanding the labour market impact of immigration in Britain - Marina Shapira

Demographic characteristics and projections of ethnic minority groups - Sylvie Dubuc and David Coleman

Ethnic variation in criminological experiences - Paula Kautt

Wednesday 25th March 2009

What happens when international migrants settle? - Phil Rees, Paul Norman, Peter Boden and Pia Wohland

Neighbourhood and the creation, stability and success of mixed-ethnic unions - Zhiqiang Feng, Paul Boyle, Maarten van Ham and Gillian Raab

Exploring the Goodhart thesis at the local scale - Liz Twigg, Joanna Taylor and John Mohan

Ethnic group population change and integration - Nissa Finney

Ethnic differences in diet, physical activity and obesity - Vanessa Higgins and Angela Dale

Racial discrimination and health - Mai Stafford, James Nazroo and Laia Becares

23 February, 2009

Presentations by UPTAP researchers at the UPTAP/GROS/Scottish Govt workshop on 12th February

The following presentations were made at the UPTAP/GROS/Scottish Govt workshop which took place on 12th February2009

Modelling of the socio-economic and geographical determinants of subjective happiness and well-being‘ by Dimitris Ballas (PDF, 385kb)

‘What happens when international migrants settle? Ethnic group population trends and projections for UK local areas’ by Peter Boden, Phil Rees, Pia Wohland and Paul Norman (PDF, 423kb)

Making Use of Local Administrative Data For Population Estimates And Service Planning by Gillian Harper (PDF, 1mb)

Understanding Population Trends and Processes (UPTAP): The Programme and its Projects by John Stillwell (PDF, 1mb)

Does ethnic diversity erode trust?: Putnam’s ‘hunkering-down’ thesis reconsidered by Patrick Sturgis, Ian Brunton-Smith, Sanna Read & Nick Allum (PDF, 153kb)

Working characteristics and cardiovascular disease risk. What are the relationships? by Claudia Thomas (PDF, 190kb)

29 September, 2008

BURISA/UPTAP Workshop at City Hall

A successful workshop was held at City Hall in London on Friday 26th September to which UPTAP researchers made a strong contribution. Click on the links below to access their presentations:

A Sabater on Residential Ethnic Segregation for age cohorts in England and Wales, 1991 to 2001

Marina Shapira on Spatial Concentrations of Immigrants and their Impact on Employment opportunities in the UK labour Market

Laia Bécares, James Nazroo & Mai Stafford on The effect of ethnic density on health

Sylvie Dubuc on Estimating fertility by ethnic groups

John Stillwell on internal migration by a London ward-level study

16 July, 2008

European Population Conference

The 2008 European Population Conference took place in Barcelona from 9 - 12 July, the main theme being migration and migrants in Europe. UPTAP contributed a strong presence with researchers presenting a number of papers which can be found below. In some cases an extended abstract is available as opposed to the paper in its entireity.

Children of Working Mothers: Does Mother’s Employment Affect Children’s Development?
Heather Joshi, Elizabeth Cooksey, Georgia Verropoulou, Elizabeth Menaghan and Nikos Tzavidis

Heather Joshi et al on Development in Children of Working Mothers

Islamism, Religiosity and Fertility in the Muslim World
Eric Kaufmann

Eric Kaufmann on Islamism Religiosity and Fertility in the Muslim World

Projections of Ethnic Group Populations in the United Kingdom
David A. Coleman and Sylvie Dubuc

D Coleman and S Dubuc on Projection of Ethnic Group Populations in the UK

The Internal Migration of Ethnic Groups in Britain: A Study Using the Census Macro and Microdata
Serena Hussain, John Stillwell and Paul Norman

Serena Hussain  John Stillwell and Paul Norman on Internal Migration of Ethnic Groups in Britain

The Neighbourhood Effect on Formation of Mixed-Ethnic Unions in Britain
Zhiqiang Feng, Paul J. Boyle, Maarten van Ham and Gillian Raab

Paul Boyle et al on the Neighbourhood Effect on the Formation of Mixed Ethnic Unions

Fertility History and Intergenerational Exchanges in Later Life
Cecilia Tomassini, Emily Grundy, Harriet Young, Tineke Fokkema and Pearl Dykstra

C Tomassini et al on Fertility History

Changes in Disease Life Expectancy Over Time and Differences Between the Sexes in England: An Explanation Through the Contribution of the Underlying Causes
Domenica Rasulo, Les Mayhew and Ben Rickayzen

D rasulo et al on Changes in Disease Life Expectancy Over Time

Rethinking Ethnic Segregation Dynamically
Nissa Finney and Ludi Simpson

N Finney and L Simpson on Rethinking Ethnic Segregation Dynamically

Estimating Segregation and Diversity of Ethnic Groups Over Time in England and Wales, 1991 - 2001
Albert Sabater

Albert Sabater on Estimating Segregation

Currently Cohabiting: Relationship Expectations and Outcome in the British Household Panel Survey
Ernestina E. Coast

Ernestina Coast on Currently Cohabiting

Understanding the Labour Market Impact of Immigration in Britain
Marina Shapira

M Shapira on Understanding the Labour Market Impact of Immigration in Britain

The Effect of Ethnic Density on the Health of Ethnic Minorities in the UK
Laia Becares

Laia Becares on Ethnic Density

15 July, 2008

ESRC Research Methods Festival 2008

UPTAP convened two sessions at this event held at St Catherine’s College, Oxford from 30 June to 3 July and the following presentations were made.

Paula Surridge on Using Factor Analysis to understand structure of social attitudes

Sarah Smith on using difference in difference methods to evaluate effect of policy reform on fertility

Dan Vickers on using K-means clustering to classify census areas

Phil Rees on estimating ethnic mortality

Paul Norman on comparing population and deprivation distributions

Pablo Mateos on using people’s names to classify ethnicity

Sarah Bulloch on Gender and Interpersonal Trust in Europe

Daniel Guinea Martin on gender and ethnic occupational segregation

Joan Wilson on measuring the impact of spatial location on child development

Dylan Kneale on the predictors of early parenthood

Domenica Rasulo on decomposition method to disentangle changes in disease life expectancy

Dimitris Ballas on Using Multi Level Modelling to Understand the Determinants of Happiness

Orian Brook on Constructing Demographic Indicators of Cultural Consumption.ppt

11 April, 2008

UPTAP Annual Workshop 18th-19th March 2008, University of Leeds

The successful event included presentations from new and completing UPTAP projects and from guest speakers. Over 50 UPTAP researchers, committee members and guests attended this two day workshop. We would like to express our thanks to all of those involved.

Phil Rees on behalf of the Coordinator welcomed delegates to the Workshop.

Welcome Presentation

Session 1, 18th March - Deprivation, Health, and Trust - Research Findings - Chaired by Phil Rees.

Paul Norman’s presentation - ‘The micro-geography of UK demographic change 1991-2001′

Gopalakrishnan Netuveli’s presentation - ‘Employment status and health trajectories’

Patrick Sturgis, Nick Allum and Sanna Read’s presentation - ‘Social and political trust: Research findings’

Session 2, 18th March - User Fellowship Research Findings - Chaired by Paul Norman.

Les Mayhew’s presentation (Given on behalf of Domenica Rasulo and Ben Rickayzen) - ‘Decomposition of changes in disease life expectancy: England 1991- 2005′

Daniel Guinea Martin’s presentation - Using the ONS Longitudinal Study and the 1958 British Birth Cohort Study to research occupational sex segregation in the 1990s

Orian Brook and Paul Boyle’s presentation - ‘Demographic indicators of cultural consumption

Session 3, 18th March - Presentations from guest speakers on UKLHS and Timescapes - Chaired by Paul Boyle

Alita Nandi’s presentation - ‘UK Longitudinal Household Study (UKLHS): Progress and plans’

Bren Neale’s presentation - ‘Timescapes: Tracking our lives and times’

Session 4, 18th March - Living Arrangements and Health - Research Findings - Chaired by Elspeth Graham

Ernestina Coast’s presentation - ‘Currently cohabiting: relationship attitudes, intentions and behaviour’

Alison Smith’s presentation - ‘Intergenerational contributions to childcare: Potential policy responses’

Paul Boyle, Peteke Feijten, Zhiqiang Feng and Elspeth Graham’s presentation - ‘Does step-parenting influence mental health?’

Claudia Thomas’ presentation - ‘How does employment affect cardiovascular risk? A life-course approach in the 1958 cohort’

Oliver Duke-Williams’ presentation - ‘Links between internal migration, commuting and inter-household relationships’

Session 5, 19th March - Ethnic Neighbourhoods - New Projects - Chaired by Ludi Simpson

Albert Sabater - ‘Estimating segregation and diversity of ethnic groups over time in England and Wales, 1991-2001′

Zhiqiang Feng, Paul Boyle, Maarten van Ham’s presentation - ‘Neighbourhoods and the creation, stability and success of mixed ethnic unions’

Lavinia Mitton and Peter Aspinall’s presentation - ”Black Africans’ in Britain: integration or segregation’

Nissa Finney’s presentation - ‘Ethnic group population change and integration: a demographic approach to small area ethnic geographies’

Session 6, 19th March - Ethnic Migration Flows - New Projects- Chaired by Tony Champion

Serena Hussain’s presentation - ‘Migration of ethnic groups in Britain’

Antonia Simon’s presentation - ‘Exploring the movement of people from different ethnic groups into or out of wards with high or low density of their own ethnic group’

Denise Hawkes’ presentation - ‘Motherhood and child outcomes: the consequences of timing of motherhood and mothers’ employment on child outcomes’

Session 7, 19th March - Ethnic Identity - Research Findings - Chaired by Debbie Phillips

James Nazroo’s presentation - ‘Being a Muslim in Europe: attitudes and experiences’

Session 8, 19th March - Ethnicity, Health and Crime - New Projects - Chaired by Angela Dale

Vanessa Higgins and Angela Dale’s presentation - ‘Ethnic differences in diet, physical activity and obesity’

Mai Stafford, Laia Becares and James Nazroo’s presentation - ‘Racial discrimination and health: exploring the possible protective effects of ethnic identity’

Paula Kautt’s presentation - ‘Ethnic variation in criminological experiences: a single and multilevel statistical analysis of British Crime Survey data, 2001-2006′

Liz Twigg, Joanna Taylor and John Mohan’s presentation - ‘Exploring the Goodhart thesis at the local scale: neighbourhood social heterogeneity and perceptions of quality of life in the British Crime Survey’

Session 9, 19th March - Ethnic Group Population Projections - New Projects - Chaired by John Stillwell

Phil Rees, Paul Norman, and Pete Boden’s presentation - ‘What happens when international migrants settle. Ethnic group population trends and projections for UK local areas under alternative scenarios’

Dimitris Ballas was unable to attend unexpectedly- he very kindly sent his presentation for the website- ‘Simulating Geographies of Happiness’

John Stillwell - Final discussion and future activities

19 December, 2007

Office for National Statistics and UPTAP Workshop, University of Southampton, 19th December 2007

UPTAP and The Office for National Statistics ran a joint workshop for policy makers and academic researchers.

To view the programme click here.

There were nine UPTAP researchers speaking at the workshop. Please click on the presentations to view them

John Stillwell, Welcome and Introduction to UPTAP

Sarah Smith, Does welfare reform affect fertility? Evidence from the UK

Roona Simpson, Delayed childbearing and childlessness in Britain

Denise Hawkes, Motherhood and child outcomes: the consequence of the timing of motherhood and mothers’ employment on child outcomes

Ernestina Coast, Currently cohabiting relationship attitudes, intentions and behaviour

Harriet Young, Living arrangements, health and well-being: A European perspective

Eric Kaufmann, God returns to Europe? The demographic revival of religion in Europe

Paul Norman, The micro-geography of demographic change, 1991-2001

Dan Vickers, The changing residential patterns of the UK, 1991-2001

3 October, 2007

Report of the UPTAP strands at the BSPS annual conference held at University of St Andrews, 11-13th September 2007.

UPTAP at the BSPS 2007

UPTAP had a strong presence at the annual British Society of Population Studies (BSPS) Conference held at the University of St Andrews from 11-13 September 2007.

John Stillwell (UPTAP Coordinator, University of Leeds) spoke in the first plenary session of the conference on Tuesday evening on the ‘ESRC Population Change Research Challenge and UPTAP’ where he explained the current demographic focus of several of the ESRC’s initiatives, outlined the current challenges and the guidelines behind the recent ESRC Research Centre Competition, and then talked about the UPTAP programme. He illustrated the different types of work being undertaken within the programme, emphasised the importance of capacity building and communication with the user sector and finished by encouraging applications to the forthcoming third call for UPTAP User Fellowships. Following John’s presentation, Guy Goodwin (Director, ONS Centre for Demography) spoke about the impacts of migration and the demographic research priorities at the Office of National Statistics, the history of collaboration and the need to build up the Centre’s staff expertise and the need for future partnerships to ensure that the important research challenges are addressed in the optimal way..

See John Stillwell’s Presentation

See Guy Goodwin’s Presentation

There were two UPTAP sessions on the following Wednesday, both consisting of three papers. Paul Norman (University of Leeds) kicked off the first session with a presentation showing the results of some of his work on ‘The micro-geography of UK demographic change 1991-2001’, demonstrating the extent and whereabouts of population, net migration and deprivation change at ward level between the two censuses. He showed that the populations of most urban and more deprived areas were maintained by natural change gain and that the population was moving away from more urban and more deprived areas during the 1990s to less deprived semi-urban locations. He also suggested that more urban and deprived areas had younger populations that less urban and non-deprived areas and that the least deprived and most rural areas were ageing the most rapidly. This presentation became an interactive session as the audience were keen to question Paul along the way about the plausibility of some of his results.

See Paul Norman’s Presentation

The second paper was presented by Adam Dennett (University of Leeds) and reported on an audit of spatial interaction data undertaken at Leeds with Oliver Duke-Williams and John Stillwell that forms the basis of new plans for an ‘An enhanced UK spatial interaction data service’. This paper was given due to the late withdrawal of one of the speakers. Adam explained that, over the next five years and in the run-up to the next census in 2011, the Centre for Interaction Data Estimation and Research (CIDER) is aiming to extend the interaction (migration and commuting) data holdings in WICID so as to provide researchers with access to sets of interaction data that complement the flows available from the SMS/SWS/STS. He summarized the main findings of the audit before discussing the three selected datasets (NHSCR and patient register data, HESA data and HES data) that will be incorporated into the new system and some of the challenges that their inclusion may present as CIDER moves towards offering a more comprehensive spatial interaction data service.

See Adam Dennett’s Presentation

The final paper of the session on ‘Developing individualised life tables’ was presented by Martin Karlsson (University of Oxford) reporting on work undertaken with Les Mayhew and Ben Rickayzen, (Cass Business School, City University). Martin outlined the recent trends in healthy life expectancy, pointing out that life expectancy free from disability has been slowly increasing although the proportion of life spent free from any disability has remained fairly constant. He identified the factors which are of particular importance in people’s life expectancy: health, labour market participation, cohabitation and mortality. The significance of these variables is twofold: they determine the well-being of individuals, but the variables also determine the resources available to the individuals in times of ill health. Using the BHPS, he showed the extent to which these variables are influenced by one another, and by exogenous factors such as education and race. Estimating a system of probit models using simulation techniques, he was able to distinguish the effects of the exogenous and endogenous variables from state dependence and unobserved heterogeneity and to estimate time trends in mortality, health and other dependent variables to investigate whether a compression of morbidity has occurred in the recent past. The parameter estimates were used to simulate life tables for various sub-groups in the population and compare measures of life expectancy and healthy life expectancy for different groups.

See Martin Karlsson’s Presentation

The three papers in the second session were more related to one another in focusing on health and well-being. Dimitris Ballas (University of Sheffield) began the session with a presentation co-authored with Mark Tranmer, (University of Manchester) on ‘Building a multi-level model of happiness and well-being’. Dimitris provided a short outline of the history of ‘happiness research’ before explaining the rationale behind the multi-level approach that he has adopted. He showed some of the results of the analysis of applying a model at individual, household, district and region level and concluded that whilst happiness is primarily an individual characteristic, the household or immediate social context does matter whilst the district and region contexts are much less important. However, there is some evidence to suggest that spatial variations in happiness do exist, even after accounting for the individual and household context. Slough has the unfortunate characteristic of being at the bottom of the happiness league table whereas Wycombe is at the top!

See Dimitris Ballas’ Presentation

Harriet Young (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine) then presented the final results of her UPTAP project entitled ‘Old, sick and alone? Living arrangements, health and well being amongst older people’. This is a project that she has completed in collaboration with Emily Grundy (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine) and which used data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) to analyse cross-sectional and longitudinal associations between living arrangements and health and well-being in England amongst older people. Specific health outcome variables include self-rated health, CES-D depression score and loneliness. Additionally, she examined the influence of extra-household support and socio-economic status on this association. Two of the main conclusions of this work are that there is a close association between living alone and higher levels of depression and loneliness, and that among women, better self-rated health occurs if they are living alone that with a spouse.

See Harriet Young’s Presentation

Paul Boyle (University of St Andrews) finished off the session with a presentation entitled ‘Does being a step-parent influence your health? A longitudinal analysis’. He reported work done in collaboration with Peteke Feijten, Zhiqiang Feng and Elspeth Graham, (University of St Andrews) and Vernon Gayle (University of Stirling). Paul began by indicating that while there have been many studies which have explored the health-effects of living in a stepparent family on children, there have been virtually none which considered the potential psychological impacts on the parents in stepfamilies. He then reported on an analysis using longitudinal birth cohort data from the 1958 National Child Development Study (NCDS) and comparing the mental health of stepparents and their partners with parents in first families. He suggested that while the stresses involved in stepfamilies may have an impact on mental health, it is also possible that those with poorer mental health are more likely to end up in a stepfamily – thus, the direction of causality may be difficult to determine.

See Paul Boyle’s presentation

In addition to these presentations, UPTAP researchers also gave papers in other sessions at the conference. In a session on Transitions to Childrearing and Partnerships, Dylan Kneale (Centre for Longitudinal Studies, Institute of Education, University of London) gave a joint paper with Heather Joshi on ‘Social polarisation and timing of motherhood in Britain’ and Ernestina Coast (London School of Economics) spoke about her UPTAP project on ‘Currently cohabiting: relationship attitudes and intentions in the BHPS’. Finally, in a session devoted to Methods, Paul Norman (University of Leeds) gave a paper on ‘Estimating with Confidence’ and hindsight: population estimates for areas smaller than districts, revisions to the levels of 1991 Census non-response’, illustrating some of the methods used to produce the data underpinning his analysis of demographic change between 1991 and 2001 that he presented earlier in the conference.

See Dylan Kneale’s Presentation

See Ernestina Coast’s Presentation

See Paul Norman’s Presentation

BSPS provided an excellent opportunity for raising awareness about the UPTAP initiative amongst the 160 participants who attended the conference, many of whom were from statistical agencies and local authorities.

3 July, 2007

Paul Norman gives presentations in Lancaster and Hong Kong

Paul Norman, University of Leeds, gave a presentations on his UPTAP research at the LARAIA2007 Conference held at the University of Lancaster on 27-29 March 2007 and at the 4th International Conference on Population Geographies at The Chinese University of Hong Kong, 10-13 July 2007.

Click below to see the presentation he gave in Hong Kong.

The micro-geography of UK demographic change 1991-2001

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